On the 7th, the website of China Iron and Steel Industry Association published an analysis article stating that with the development of various industries in China; Stable growth; The implementation of policy measures will lead to an improvement in the demand for steel in the market in the later stage. However, due to the excessive domestic steel production capacity, the contradiction between steel supply and demand will persist for a long time, and prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level.

Data shows that at the end of October, the CSPI comprehensive domestic steel price index of the Iron and Steel Association was 105.39, an increase of 2.94 points or 2.94% compared to the end of September, but still a decrease of 17.33 points or 14.12% compared to the same period last year. According to the ten day report of the Iron and Steel Association, the daily production level of crude steel in China in mid to early October was 1.999 million tons, an increase of 67000 tons from September. Although steel production has rebounded, the daily production level has not yet recovered to the best level of this year. Analysis suggests that during the traditional peak season of steel consumption, the growth rate of the steel industry has rebounded, steel exports have accelerated, social inventories have significantly decreased, and the supply-demand imbalance in the domestic market has improved to some extent. In addition, the government has increased investment approval efforts, and market expectations have strengthened, resulting in a slight rebound in steel prices.

From January to September, the cumulative profit and loss of member enterprises of the Iron and Steel Association after offsetting was -5528 million yuan, a year-on-year change from profit to loss. In September, the company continued to incur losses, and the scope of losses further expanded. The task of reducing costs and increasing efficiency for the company is arduous. The China Iron and Steel Association believes that with the recovery of the steel market, the speed of steel production capacity release has accelerated. In September, the daily production level of crude steel reached 1.9316 million tons, a month on month increase of 2%. The daily production level in early October also reached a relatively high level. However, the contradiction of oversupply in the steel market is still difficult to fundamentally reverse. Steel companies should continue to adhere to the business principles of no production without contracts, no delivery without payment, and no sales below manufacturing costs.

In addition, with the rebound of domestic steel prices, the spot price of imported iron ore has seen a significant increase, rising from $88/ton in early September to the current $116/ton, an increase of up to 32%; The price of steel billets has risen from 3010 yuan/ton in early September to the current 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 10%, far greater than the increase in steel prices. The production cost of steel has once again increased, and the economic benefits of enterprises are still not optimistic.

At the same time, the situation of domestic iron ore supply exceeding demand has become more apparent. At the end of October, the port inventory of imported iron ore decreased to 90.82 million tons, a decrease of 3.86 million tons compared to the previous period, but still remained at a high level; From January to September, China's pig iron production increased by 13.57 million tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of only 2.7%; The production of domestic iron ore (raw ore) increased by 75.18 million tons year-on-year, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%, which can fully meet the national demand for pig iron production growth; At the same time, China still imported 42.91 million tons of iron ore year-on-year, an increase of 8.4%. From the perspective of the iron ore price index, at the end of October, the China Iron Ore Price Index (CIOPI) was 390.74 points, an increase of 26.18 points month on month, or 7.18%. At the end of October, the CSPI China Steel Price Index was 105.39 points, up 2.94% month on month. The rebound in steel prices has shown signs of fatigue, while the CIOPI imported iron ore landed at $114.28/ton, up 9.65% month on month, which is 3.28 times the increase in the steel price index. The short-term rise in iron ore prices is too fast, and it is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate in the later period.