Since the beginning of this year, with the slowdown of domestic economic growth, the steel market has shown a situation of oversupply, and steel prices have continued to decline and fluctuate at a low level. However, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coal have lagged behind and the magnitude of the decline is relatively small, and the production and operation situation of the steel industry remains severe. Faced with difficult situations, the steel industry has turned pressure into motivation, accelerated the transformation of its development mode, and actively adopted; Benchmarking and tapping potential Effective measures such as adjusting product structure and energy conservation have achieved significant results.

one、 Basic situation of production and operation in the current steel industry

oneMember companies reduce production by 2.04%, while non member companies increase by 8.16%

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of pig iron, crude steel, and steel in China from January to September was five thousand two 778 thousand tons, five thousand four three before ten thousand tons, and seven thousand eight three thousand tons, respectively, an increase of 2.7%, one seven%, and five seven% year-on-year, with growth rates falling by 7.7%, 9%, and 8.2 percentage points year-on-year; The average daily crude steel production is 979000 tons, still at a relatively high level.

In September, member steel companies produced a total of 40000 tons of steel, a decrease of 97000 tons compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 2.04%. Since July, member steel companies have taken measures such as reducing production and conducting maintenance to control their output. The daily production level decreased month by month in July, August, and September, from onesixsix. five million tons in June to onesixfour million tons in July, onefivefive 9800 tons in August, and onefivetwo. livethree million tons in September. The production reduction in September compared to June was 8.9%. Three consecutive months of month on month decline. Non member enterprises have produced a total of 90000 tons of steel in September, an increase of 770000 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 8.16%.

twoSteel exports maintain growth, while imports slightly decrease

According to the Customs Express, in January, China exported a total of 780000 tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; Accumulated imports of steel amounted to 10000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. Imported steel billets of 290000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.99%; The net export of steel is three thousand tons, and the net import of steel billets is 290000 tons. The total net export of raw steel is equivalent to three hundred thousand tons, an increase of 700000 tons year-on-year, an increase of twenty-four percent; Accumulated imports of iron ore amounted to 70000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%.

In October, China exported 840000 tons of steel, a decrease of 30000 tons compared to the previous month, a decrease of Six.0%; There are almost no exports of steel billets. Imported steel of 0.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 0.4%; Imported 20000 tons of steel billets, unchanged from last month; The total net export of raw materials is equivalent to 40 million tons of crude steel, a decrease of 1.5 million tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 3. six%.

threeThe market competition is fierce, and steel prices are running at a low level

On September 7th, the comprehensive domestic steel price of CSPI, a steel association, fell below 100 points, the lowest point since the sixth month of 2009. Afterwards, it gradually rebounded. On January 9th, the comprehensive price index of steel was 0.1six.0.one points, an increase of 0.2 points compared to the previous month, with an increase of 0.9%; Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by onesix.08 points, a decrease of one three. one 7%. The long timber index is one09.sixfive points, an increase of 0.onetree points on a month on month basis, an increase of 0.onetwo%, and a decrease of one8.three-8 points or onefour.threesix% compared to the same period last year; The board index is one-0three-9.9 five points, an increase of one-one 8 points or one-one five% compared to the same period last year, a decrease of one-three. 9 three or one-8.2% compared to the same period last year. Although steel prices have rebounded in the past two months, the magnitude is small and still at a relatively low level.

fourThe social inventory continues to decline, and the high inventory situation of enterprises has been alleviated

On January 9th, the social inventory of five types of steel (medium plate, cold-rolled thin plate, hot-rolled thin plate, wire rod, and rebar) in the two major steel markets surveyed by the China Iron and Steel Association was 80000 tons, a decrease of 3.075 million tons or 2.8% from the end of last month, marking the ninth consecutive month on month decline; Compared with the beginning of the year, inventory decreased by 80000 tons, and compared with the same period last year, inventory decreased by 80000 tons.

From the inventory situation of the enterprise, the finished steel inventory of member enterprises exceeded 10 million tons at the beginning of this year, and has been increasing month by month since then, reaching the highest value of 80000 tons by the end of July. August and September member companies; Production is determined by sales; The reduction in production is significant, with inventory dropping to one two foursix million tons at the end of August and further to one ten sixnine million tons at the end of September, a decrease of two four.sixone% from the end of July, approaching the inventory level at the end of September last year. The high inventory of finished steel products in the enterprise has been alleviated.

fiveThe economic benefits of steel enterprises continue to show losses

According to statistics from the Iron and Steel Association, in September, large and medium-sized steel enterprises achieved a cumulative sales revenue of 2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; The sales cost was 2.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.92%, which is 7 percentage points lower than the decrease in sales revenue; During the period, the expenses were increased by 7.93% year-on-year, reaching RMB 1 billion; Realize a profit and tax of four hundred million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of six hundred and eighty-four%; After offsetting profits and losses, the realized profit was a loss of 500 million yuan, compared to a profit of 800 million yuan in the same period last year, which turned from profit to loss. The loss amount of the loss making enterprise is two times seven billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of four times; The loss area is fourfive%, an increase of three-8.7 five percentage points year-on-year.

sixThe growth rate of fixed assets investment in the steel industry fell back

In January, the total fixed asset investment in the national steel industry reached fivefourone billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, the investment in the black smelting and rolling industry was four billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, a decrease of five percentage points from the same period last year; The investment in black mines amounted to 2.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with a growth rate five percentage points higher than the same period last year. The growth rate of fixed assets investment in the iron and steel industry fell sharply, mainly due to the sharp decline in the growth rate of investment in black smelting and calendering industries.

two、 The prominent problems faced by the steel industry

The growth rate of apparent consumption of crude steel has significantly declined

From January to September this year, the apparent consumption of crude steel in China was five thousand tons, an increase of only three thousand tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of only 0. six percent. On the other hand, the apparent consumption of crude steel increased by four thousand tons, an increase of one thousand tons, a decrease of 9.7 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The railway construction investment and real estate (newly started) development investment in the main steel industry have both experienced negative growth. The completion volume, new orders, and orders held in the shipbuilding industry have all significantly decreased. The total industrial output value (product output) of the machinery, automobile, and home appliance industries has shown weak growth or significant decline in growth rate. The weak demand situation in the steel market has not undergone significant changes.

twoThe price of raw materials is difficult to significantly decrease, and the profit margin of enterprises is greatly compressed

According to statistics from the Iron and Steel Association, the financial settlement prices of steel companies in September decreased by one-five.sixfour% year-on-year. During the same period, the procurement costs of raw materials for enterprises, except for imported iron ore, decreased by one-8.fourthree% (greater than the one-five.sixfour% decrease in steel settlement prices). The procurement costs of raw materials such as coking coal and injection coal only decreased by 7.1ix7% and three-fourone% year-on-year, resulting in a significant compression of the profitability of enterprise products. After late September, steel prices have slightly rebounded, but raw material prices have also experienced a rapid rebound. For example, the spot price of imported iron ore has rebounded by about 80 yuan per ton, and steel companies continue to face high cost pressure

threeThe steel industry is experiencing worsening losses, and the task of turning losses around for enterprises is arduous

Since the beginning of this year, although steel enterprises have done a lot of effective work in market development, energy conservation and consumption reduction, cost reduction and efficiency improvement, large and medium-sized steel enterprises are still in a situation of industry wide losses. This year, except for three, four, and five months with slight profits, all other months are in a loss state, and the loss amount is increasing month by month. In September, there was a loss of 2.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.82 billion yuan compared to the previous month, mainly due to an increase in investment income of 9.9 billion yuan, and the loss of the main steel business did not decrease; The loss amount of the loss making enterprise is approximately 97 million yuan, an increase of 0.87% compared to the previous period; The loss has reached fivetwo-fold%. In September, there were six companies with accumulated losses of over one billion yuan, four companies with losses of over five billion yuan, and two companies with losses of over one billion yuan.

fourEnterprises face financial constraints and difficulties in turnover

Although the government has taken measures to increase support for the real economy this year, such as reducing the reserve requirement ratio for bank deposits, increasing loan quotas, and lowering the benchmark interest rates for deposits and loans twice, steel companies still face financial constraints due to factors such as a significant drop in steel prices and increased losses. In September, the financial expenses of large and medium-sized steel enterprises amounted to RMB 900 million, a year-on-year increase of 8%. At the end of September, the asset liability ratio was 9%, an increase of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year. Bank loans increased by one two. three% year-on-year; Inventory capital occupancy increased by five.92% compared to the beginning of the year; Accounts receivable increased by 1.8% year-on-year, while accounts payable increased by 0.6% year-on-year. Steel enterprises are generally facing a difficult situation of tight funds, and some enterprises have incurred losses exceeding the depreciation of fixed assets, which has affected the normal operation of the enterprise.

three、 Current situation assessment and main tasks in the steel industry

Recently, the country has increased its measures to stabilize growth, and the steel market has responded accordingly. Since late September, steel prices have slightly rebounded, and there are signs of gradual improvement in the steel market. Steel companies need to recognize the situation facing the industry.

oneThe demand for steel in the market has improved in the fourth quarter

In September, the National Development and Reform Commission approved two new urban rail transit projects and one three highway projects. The number of new railway projects increased by one three, from nine set at the beginning of to two. This year, the fixed assets investment of the railway is planned to increase from five billion yuan to six billion yuan. Therefore, in the fourth quarter, the national fixed assets investment will increase significantly, the steel market demand will rebound compared with the previous three quarters, and the weak situation of steel demand will be improved.

twoThe difficulty of steel prices continuing to rebound has increased

Due to the significant increase in steel production capacity compared to demand, as steel prices rise, some equipment that has already been shut down is being put into operation one after another. In September, the daily crude steel production in China was 1 million tons, 3 million tons, 5 million tons, an increase of 2% compared to the previous month. In September, the daily crude steel production was 1 million tons, 9 million tons, and 6 million tons. Although slightly lower than September, it is still higher than the level in August. In addition, with the arrival of winter, the quantity of steel sold from the north to the southern market will increase, and the situation of regional oversupply is difficult to avoid, which should also be of concern to us. At present, the recovery of steel prices is weak, and it is increasingly difficult to maintain the upward trend. Whether the market can stabilize remains to be observed.

threeThe prices of raw materials such as iron ore will fluctuate with steel prices

Since the beginning of this year, as long as there is a slight rebound in steel prices, the prices of metallurgical raw materials such as iron ore and coal will immediately follow suit, and the increase will be relatively high; When steel prices fall, the prices of raw materials often lag behind for a long time and the decline is limited. Due to this price trend of rising at the same time and falling at different times, all the meager profits in the steel industry have been consumed.

In the current market environment, efforts to control steel production, promote basic balance between supply and demand, and promote reasonable price recovery are effective ways to improve the operating conditions of enterprises. The entire industry should continue to take accelerating the transformation of development mode as the main line of work, and conscientiously implement the decision made at the expanded meeting of the board of directors at the beginning of the year; Stabilize the market, control production, adjust structure, and ensure profitability; The work goal is to adhere to it; No production without contract, no payment, no shipment, no sales below manufacturing cost; The business principle is to promote the return of supply and demand balance and the reasonable recovery of steel prices, avoid blind production, and strictly control inventory and capital occupation.

At the same time, we need to increase the potential for benchmarking and strive to reduce production costs. At present, the competition among enterprises is a competition of costs, and benchmarking and tapping potential is the most direct and effective way to reduce production costs for enterprises. In the situation where steel prices are difficult to significantly increase, enterprises need to extensively benchmark, find gaps, do everything possible to reduce costs, enhance core competitiveness, and improve the quality and efficiency of economic operation.