1、 Market Review and Analysis

4月份国内钢市整体呈先扬后抑走势。清明假期唐山钢坯暴涨，引发现货价格大幅上涨，期货企稳反弹，钢市上演了久违的上涨态势，但市场在经过短期大幅上涨后，市场承压明显，下游观望心态加重，经销商低价抛货套现增多，中旬国内钢市转入窄幅盘整态势。截止22日，省内市场三级螺纹钢价格3240-3260元/吨，较上月末上涨20元/吨；厚规格热卷价格3410-3440元/吨，较上月末上涨70元/吨；中板价格3470-3520元/吨，较上月末上涨50元/吨；H型钢中小规格价格3390-3420元/吨，普通大规格价格3320-3350元/吨，较上月末上涨50-110元/吨；齿轮钢价格3930-3960元/吨，与上月末持平。

2、 Domestic mainstream market price trend chart:

2、 Market Trend Prediction

一季度GDP增速为7.4%，为09年以来的新低，国务院总理李克强在博鳌论坛上指出，不会为经济一时波动而采取短期的强刺激政策；房地产开发投资持续高位回落，新开工面积继续负增长，制造业需求仍然不旺，后期钢市需求拉动乏力；钢价反弹促使钢厂盈利改善，4月上旬全国粗钢日均产量创近半年来新高；主导钢厂价格分歧，市场拉涨信心不足；虽然国内钢市经过短期快速拉涨，价格有了一定回升，但下游需求难以及时跟进，预计5月份国内钢市窄幅调整的可能性大，继续上行还需要新的政策性因素拉动。

4、 Factors affecting the operation of the domestic steel market:

1. The economic data slightly exceeded expectations, and the domestic economy remained within a reasonable range.The domestic GDP in the first quarter increased by 7.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter; In March, new RMB loans amounted to 105 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4 billion yuan and a month on month increase of 405.5 billion yuan; In March, PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, while CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year. From the perspective of major economic data, China's economy as a whole remains within a reasonable range, but the growth rate has significantly declined, indicating an increase in pressure to maintain growth. On the 16th, Premier Li Keqiang presided over a State Council executive meeting, emphasizing that the current economic operation is still within a reasonable range, and there is currently no expansion of the deficit or adoption of measures; Strong stimulation; Considering this, the current government needs to; Stable growth; As an important task, we must adhere to a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.

2. The growth rate of the steel industry is declining, and the demand in the later stage is not optimistic.Fixed assets investment from January to January increased by 17.6% year on year, 0.3 percentage point lower than that from January to February. From January to March, the national real estate development investment increased by 16.8% year-on-year, a significant decrease of 2.5 percentage points from January to February; From January to March, the newly started construction area of housing decreased by 25.2%, and the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 3.8%. Since the beginning of this year, real estate confidence has plummeted, and housing prices in various regions have begun to loosen. Considering the high construction area, land purchase area, and financing costs, it is expected that real estate investment will still face downward pressure in the later stage.

3月份汇丰制造业采购经理指数PMI终值48%，创八个月最低水平；一季度规模以上工业增加值增速小幅回落，同比增幅为8.7%，增幅比上年同期回落0.8个百分点；一季度全社会用电量同比增长5.4%，比1-2月份仅增长0.9个百分点，说明当前制造业回暖势头疲弱，工业企业利润的增长动力不足。

3. Steel production remains high.According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel in China from January to March was 202.7 million tons, 179.7 million tons, and 261.41 million tons, respectively, an increase of 2.4%, 0.1%, and 5.3% year-on-year; In March, the production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel was 70.25 million tons, 61.55 million tons, and 95.07 million tons, respectively, an increase of 2.2%, a decrease of 0.9%, and an increase of 5% year-on-year; The daily average production of crude steel and steel was 2.266 million tons and 3.067 million tons, respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.2% and 9.2%. Recently, steel prices have rebounded, and the profitability of steel companies has also improved. There is a possibility that production will continue to increase in the future.

4. The raw material prices are operating steadily and will remain stable in the later stage.In April, iron ore prices first rose and then fell, while coke prices remained stable. As of the 21st, the average price of 62% imported ore in the Platts Price Index for this month is $116.29 per ton, an increase of $4.5 from the average price of $111.79 per ton in March; The mainstream production price of Shanxi's secondary metallurgical coke is 880 yuan/ton, unchanged from the end of March. As of April 18th, the inventory of iron ore in 44 major ports across the country was approximately 108.05 million tons, a decrease of 150000 tons from last week. Recently, there have been reports that the Chinese government has tightened iron ore financing and released a large amount of inventory, which may trigger a price avalanche. Under the influence of merchants' fear of falling, the domestic raw material market is also unlikely to have significant changes, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term.

5. The decline in social inventory of steel is slowing down.As of April 18th, the social inventory of the five major steel varieties in the country's major markets was 17.3669 million tons, a decrease of 673400 tons from last week and a decrease of 3.4756 million tons from the same period last year. The inventory has been reduced for seven consecutive weeks, but the decline has slowed down. At present, the total inventory of rebar in major cities across the country is 8.5168 million tons; The total inventory of wire is 2.0815 million tons; The total inventory of hot rolling is 3.8304 million tons; The total inventory of cold rolling is 1.5447 million tons; The total inventory of medium plate is 1.3935 million tons. According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, the inventory of key enterprises in early April was 15.139 million tons, a decrease of 285000 tons compared to the previous month.

6. Price divergence among leading steel mills.Due to high prices in the early stage, Baosteel lowered the hot coil price by 100 yuan/ton and the cold coil price by 150 yuan/ton in May to maintain orders. The hot coil prices of Ansteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, and Hebei Iron and Steel remained stable in May, with Hebei Iron and Steel offering a discount of 100 yuan/ton on reduced orders and a 50-100 yuan/ton reduction in cold coil prices. Shougang and Ansteel's medium thick plate prices increased by 50 yuan/ton.